Claudius fears the outcome of such a funeral. As Hamlet is the guilty party, and being much loved by the multitude, he cannot risk the attention it would bring to Hamlet's supposed madness and conspicuous absence. Even under the guise of obtaining help for Hamlet's madness in England, he would risk calling attention to the murder and the people of Denmark forgiving him considering the sudden death and hasty marriage of Claudius and Gertrude. Also, Denmark is in political turmoil and Claudius holds a tenuous position. He has been approved by vote, and can be ousted just as easily, as is seen when Laertes returns to avenge his father's death with a mob calling for him to be king.
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